BF.capital Publishes First BF.Private Debt Market Compass

• New sentiment index signals positive momentum in private debt market.
• Index score of 60.1 points is well above the neutral score of 50
• Market sentiment defined by strong fund-raising dynamic, growing capital commitments and balanced risk-return ratios

Stuttgart, 23 February 2026 – With the first edition of its BF.Private Debt Market Compass, BF.capital GmbH is introducing a new data-driven market analysis for the international private debt sector. The panel survey will collect the assessments of around 200 private debt fund managers semi-annually. It covers the sub-segments of Corporate Direct Lending, Real Estate Debt and Infrastructure Debt. The debut survey is based on a poll among 67 respondents worldwide with a focus on Europe, conducted in December 2025. It shows a generally positive market environment that, despite macroeconomic uncertainty, is defined by stable debt structures, selective competition and a robust investor base.

The first BF.Private Debt Market Sentiment Index shows 60.1 points, which puts it well above the neutral stance of 50. This basic upward trend is explained primarily by robust fundraising dynamics, increasing capital commitments by institutional investors and balanced risk-return ratios. The so-called expectation gap, meaning the difference between future and past composite sentiment sub-indices, signals growing optimism for the first half of 2026.

Stable Market Conditions, Mildly Borrower-Tilted

Financing conditions in the private debt market have proven broadly stable over the last six months, according to the panel, while showing a slight tendency toward more borrower-friendly conditions. Over the next six months, the market equilibrium is expected to shift somewhat in favour of lenders. On the level of the sub-segments of Direct Corporate Lending, Real Estate Debt and Infrastructure Debt, the leverage levels will hug the lower end of the market-standard spreads. For instance, the debt rate in direct lending remains in most cases below EBITDA multiples of five whereas the mortgage lending values in the real estate debt segment are entirely concentrated in the 56 to 65 percent range.

Fundraising Dynamics Generally Strengthening

The assessment is particularly positive for the capital-raising environment: More than two out of every three respondents reported a growing momentum in fundraising, while 82 percent expect the next six months to bring further improvements. In a parallel development, capital commitments by institutional investors are increasing: Nearly two in three respondents have registered higher capital commitments by limited partners whereas no respondents expect LP commitments to decrease. Existing investors continue to play a key role in capital commitments: In a few segments, so-called “re-ups”—meaning increases to existing investments—account for a share exceeding 80 percent of current fundraising activity.

Operational Risks Dominate while Credit Quality Remains Robust

In the opinion of the respondents, possible portfolio stress factors are rarely structurally motivated by excessive borrowing or refinancing issues but instead tend to be of operational nature and sector-specific. For example, the consumer and retail sector stands out as facing the greatest stress in the Corporate Direct Lending segment, whereas in Real Estate Debt, stress is most pronounced in the office and high-street retail segments, and the energy segment is the one most stressed in Infrastructure Debt.

Default and non-accrual rates have stayed broadly stable over the past six months. Almost 85 percent of the respondents reported unchanged figures here. Analogously, the outlook for the coming six months suggests signs of tightening only in localised market segments.