Monthly Roundup and Digest – Our Market Radar

Each month, Francesco Fedele and Prof. Dr. Steffen Sebastian analyse and comment the trends, risks and opportunities relevant to real asset financing and beyond – in clear, critical and hands-on terms.

Once a month, Francesco Fedele, CEO of BF.direkt AG, and Prof. Dr. Steffen Sebastian, tenured chair of real estate financing at the International Real Estate Business School (IREBS), University of Regensburg, discuss the current financing market landscape.

They shed light on price trends, regulatory efforts and the ECB’s interest rate policy – fact-based and clearly put into context. In addition to analysing the current situation, they provide guidance. Their analyses point to looming threats, emerging opportunities and to developments that are likely to impact markets.

June 2026 – Higher Interest Rates Becoming New Reality

Higher interest rates, stable markets – and no end in sight to the period of high interest rates. What this means for property developers, portfolio owners and the property sector as a whole.

May 2026 – Rise in Long-Term Interest Rates Now a Reality – Markets Responding with Calm

Die langfristigen Zinsen sind zuletzt spürbar gestiegen – dennoch zeigen sich die Märkte stabil. Warum die aktuelle Entwicklung keine Panik auslöst und welche Folgen sich für Finanzierungen und Refinanzierungen ergeben.

March 2026 – Financial Markets Show Calm Response to Iran Crisis

Massive upheavals on the financial markets were to be expected in the wake of the attack on Iran. There are fears that energy prices could go up, inflationary pressures increase and interest rates tighten as a result.

February 2026 – Many Real Estate Market Operators are Playing for Time

With 2026 now well underway, it is becoming clear that markets will not recover any time soon, and that a slow and cautious uphill climb is more likely instead.

January 2026 – Outlook for the Real Estate Market in 2026: Unexpected Impulse from Abroad

Our first look at 2026 inspires a touch of optimism. The major tendencies informing the German real estate market are likely to continue unchecked.

December 2025: While the Market is Facing Serious Issues, We Don’t Anticipate an NPL Wave

Insolvencies among project developers and portfolio holders show no sign of abating. Nevertheless, we do not see a major NPL wave.

November 2025: Realism and Practicality Defining the Market

Die Immobilienfinanzierungsmärkte zeigen sich im November stabil, bleiben aber anspruchsvoll. Die Nachfrage konzentriert sich auf Logistik und Wohnen.

May 2025: Real Estate Companies Should Consider Entering the Infrastructure Business

The international capital market is currently shaken up by the capricious course of US politics. In Germany, the new federal government is settling in.

February 2025: Drop in Key Lending Rates Does Not Automatically Stimulate Real Estate Market

The EZB is moving through an interest rate cutting cycle. There have been five interest rate cuts so far and there may be another three before the end of 2025.