BF.Quartalsbarometer Q2-2026: Stimmung unter den Immobilienfinanzierern bricht ein

Stuttgart, 6 July 2026 – Sentiment among commercial real estate lenders eroded rapidly during the second quarter of 2026. This is the upshot of the latest BF.Quartalsbarometer, compiled by BF.direkt AG in collaboration with the Handelsblatt Research Institute. The barometer score dropped from -9.74 points down to now -25.97 points. A score so low indicates a very limited willingness to finance. The survey took place between 8 and 16 of June.

According to its findings, many of the key parameters changed for the worse: Almost half of all respondents (46.15 percent) reported that the terms of financing had deteriorated over prior quarter. As recently as Q1, the score stood at 27.27 percent. The score for new lending also followed a bleaker trend. 23.08 percent reported a decline in new lending business (compared to 0.0 percent in Q1). Analogously, lending volumes manifest a downward development: Financial institutes of all sizes saw an increase in small-scale loans below ten million euros and a decrease in major financing arrangements ranging from 50 to 100 million euros and upward of 100 million euros.

There has also been a shift in the underwriting of loans. 26.92 percent (+17.82 percentage points) of the respondents stated that their loan decisions had been largely steered by their risk departments. Conversely, none of the respondents said their loan decisions were influenced by the new lending division (‑7.69 percentage points).

Professor Dr. Steffen Sebastian, tenured chair of real estate financing at the International Real Estate Business School (IREBS) of the University of Regensburg and scientific advisor of BF.Quartalsbarometer, said: “The results are primarily explained by the war in Iran and its consequences. The energy shock has an inflation-driving effect, which in turn causes fear of rising interest rates. All this is hitting a sector that has been in a precarious situation anyway since the massive interest hike in 2022.”

Francesco Fedele, the CEO of BF.direkt AG, added: “The most recent quarterly barometer survey coincided with the very start of the Iran conflict. Many financiers initially took it in stride. However, they gradually lost their composure over the course of Q2, causing sentiment, and with it the barometer score, to take a nosedive.”

Dr. Sven Jung, Director Economic Analysis & Financial Planning at the Handelsblatt Research Institute, commented: “Among the other key survey findings is that interbank competition for sound financing arrangements has actually decreased, according to 26.92 percent of the respondents (Q1 2026: 5.88 percent). By contrast, the NPL ratio has gone up: The number of respondents who reported such an increase grew from 18.18 to 30.77 percent. Both of these granular results match the negative trend that defined the second quarter.”

Fabio Carrozza, Chief Sales Officer at BF.direkt AG, commented: “The Quarterly Barometer findings match our own first-hand observations on the ground: We are currently aware of many banks who manage their new lending business far more selectively while having to deal with a growing number of non-performing loans on their books. Both aspects are tying down resources and reduce the willingness to underwrite new loans. Meanwhile, the opportunities emerging from the situation are being seized by debt funds so as to bankroll projects that, while principally viable, no longer meet the benchmarks of some banks.”

By contrast, loan-to-value (LTV) and loan-to-cost (LTC) ratios proved more stable, as did margins. Depending on a property’s type of use, margins followed different trends, ranging from 135.0 basis points (residential) to 184.3 basis points (logistics) for standing properties, and from 252.7 basis points (residential) to 301.1 basis points (office) for developments. LTV ratios (existing property) averaged 64.2 percent across all use classes, while the LTC average (developments) was 66.3 percent.

About the Methodology

The BF.Quartalsbarometer is compiled by the Handelsblatt Research Institute on behalf of BF.direkt AG, a real asset finance specialist. Scientific advisor of the BF.Quartalsbarometer is Prof. Dr. Steffen Sebastian, tenured chair of real estate financing at the International Real Estate Business School (IREBS) of the University of Regensburg. The index comprehensively maps the sentiment and business climate among real estate lenders in Germany.

For the survey underlying the BF.Quartalsbarometer, a total of currently 38 experts are polled four times a year, all of whom are directly responsible for approving loans to real estate companies. Among the panel members are representatives of diverse banks and other types of financiers.

The BF.Quartalsbarometer score reflects survey responses on the following aspects: assessment of current financing conditions, the trend in new lending, average loan volume per transaction, the department responsible for loan decisions, development of the NPL ratio, the importance of alternative funding options, and the evolution of the competitive landscape.