BF.Quartalsbarometer Q3-2026: Sentiment among Real Estate Lenders Brightening

• Barometer score ascends from -25.97 to -12.30 points
• Modest upward trend in new lendings and for the NPL ratio
• Margins and loan-to-value ratios virtually unchanged

Stuttgart, September 24,  2026 –Sentiment among commercial real estate lenders has brightened during the third quarter of 2026 even as it remains well below zero. This is the upshot of the latest BF.Quartalsbarometer, compiled by BF.direkt AG in collaboration with the Handelsblatt Research Institute. The barometer score rose from -25.97 to -12.30 points lately.

Several key parameters drove the ascent of the barometer score, including slightly positive developments in the new lending business. Roughly 35 percent of the respondents reported an increase in new lendings (up from 23 percent in Q2). The percentage of respondents who saw new lendings decline actually dropped to zero (Q2: 23 percent). The other respondents observed a stagnation in the new lending business.

While 46 percent of the respondents had reported a general quarter-over-quarter deterioration in financing conditions as recently as the second quarter, their share fell to 15 percent during the third quarter. No less than 80 percent of the experts confirmed during the third quarter that the terms of financing had stayed the same.

The average probability for non-performing loan saw a minimal decline. The percentage of respondents who registered an increase in NPL ratio over the past three months fell from 31 to 25 percent. Half of the respondents reported no change in ratio (Q2: 35 percent), while 15 percent said it had fallen (Q2: 19 percent). The rest did not provide any informations.

Financing arrangements for existing building stock showed an average margin of 156 basis points (bps), which is just two basis points lower than it was in the second quarter. A breakdown by real estate types reveals that residential properties averaged the lowest margin at 120 bps whereas supermarkets had the highest with an average of 170 bps. Moving on to property development financing, the average margin here increased by nearly four basis points to now 273 bps. Banks charged the highest margin in this segment for office buildings (309 bps), the lowest for logistics properties (210 bps).

The average loan-to-value ratio for existing loan facilities more or less matched the level of the previous quarter at 64.5 percent. By contrast, the average loan-to-cost ratio of property developments perked up slightly and is now at 67.9 percent.

Fabio Carrozza, Chief Sales Officer at BF.direkt AG, commented: “Even though the barometer reading remains below zero, it is remarkable to see its drastic improvement. The number of financial institutes that report an increase in new lending has jumped up. That being said, the elevated financing costs remain a major challenge for all market players. Another thing to be taken into account is the fact that the most recent key rate hike by the ECB took place after the poll. So, whether this interest rate move had been anticipated by the respondents and is therefore indirectly mirrored in their assessments is impossible to say with any degree of certainty.”

At 75 percent, the vast majority of respondents now assume that interest on financing arrangements with a fixed-interest period of ten years will exceed the current level by the end of the year. This is up from 69 percent who said as much during the second quarter.

Prof. Dr. Steffen Sebastian, tenured chair of real estate financing at the International Real Estate Business School (IREBS) of the University of Regensburg and scientific advisor of BF.Quartalsbarometer, said: “That real interest has lately gone up irrespective of inflation represents a new development. Yet we believe it is here to stay. Even if inflation falls, interest rates will not drop back to their previous level. This implies more than just the end of the low-interest cycle. It is a fundamental, paradigmatic shift. In addition to higher lending rates, the political and economic stability has also weakened. Investors should be prepared to make decisions under circumstances much less certain than they used to be.”

About the Methodology

The BF.Quartalsbarometer is compiled by the Handelsblatt Research Institute on behalf of BF.direkt AG, a real asset finance specialist. Scientific adviser of the BF.Quartalsbarometer is Prof. Dr. Steffen Sebastian, tenured chair of real estate financing at the International Real Estate Business School (IREBS) of the University of Regensburg. The index comprehensively maps the sentiment and business climate among real estate lenders in Germany.

For the survey underlying the BF.Quartalsbarometer, a total of currently 38 experts are polled four times a year, all of whom are directly responsible for approving loans to real estate companies. Among the panel members are representatives of diverse banks and other types of financiers.

The BF.Quartalsbarometer score reflects survey responses on the following aspects: assessment of current financing conditions, the trend in new lending, average loan volume per transaction, the department responsible for loan decisions, development of the NPL ratio, the importance of alternative funding options, and the evolution of the competitive landscape.